Group B: The Group of Death and Albania

European champions, World champions, World Cup semi-finalists and an underdog who will put up a fight. Perhaps the perfect group. Italy are here to retain their crown and show they have still got it. A Spain team full of talent who have come back for a potential 4th title, which will make them record holders. The Croatians will want to go a step further than they did at the World Cup in what will likely be a final attempt for many of the players. And finally, an Albanian side, who’ve only competed in a tournament once before but produced a very successful qualification, looking to have a dog in this fight.

Italy:

The current European champions have always had a wide range of defensive talent from the Maldini’s on the game to the more recent Chiellini’s and Bonucci’s. This trend of defensive stability is still true today within the Italian squad. A team which has kept 4 clean sheets in their last 5 games has the likes of Alessandro Bastoni (Inter Milan), Gianluca Mancini (Roma), Alessandro Buongiorno (Torino) and new boy Riccardo Calafiori (Bologna) to thank. These are some of the top centre-backs in Europe and with there still being an essence of youth in the squad, they will all have a big part to play in Italy’s development.

One key aspect of this Italian team is the wing-backs. Thanks to a common 3-4-3 formation used by manager Luciano Spalletti, the wing-backs have free roam to join the attack and are encouraged to do so. The main man of this system is Federico Dimarco (Inter Milan) who executes this role perfectly. He collected 5 goals and 6 assists in 29 games during the 23/24 season of the Seria A and played a vital role in winning the league.

Looking at the heatmap collected during his 6 games for Italy in qualification, we can see he does a majority of his work in the opponent’s half. His offensive capability and allowance to push forward means that Italy will always have that extra outlet in attack. Worst case scenario, the opposition's wingers are required to track back to deal with the overload on the left side of the pitch, therefore both reducing the risk of a counter-attack and reducing the burden on the Italy centre backs. 

In addition to Dimarco, there is also the versatile Di Lorenzo (Napoli) in the right-back position. A player who can both play wing back and step comfortably in a back 3 is perfect for the system played by Spalletti. Although he doesn’t produce the same offensive numbers as Dimarco, Di Lorenzo still plays a vital part by occupying the right side of the pitch and providing his winger with much-needed backup. Though he doesn’t venture into the final 3rdas much, he still offers stability on the right side of the pitch, as well as providing defensive security therefore giving Dimarco the free roam he has. 

The main area of weakness for Italy is in the striker department. They have Scamacca (Atalanta) who in this last season has hit some good form since his move from West Ham. With 19 goals in 44 games, he should be the man to lead the line, however, under Spalletti he does not seem to be the first choice. The man to lead the line usually goes to one of former Argentine Mateo Retegui (Genoa) or Giacomo Raspadori (Napoli). The latter only has 2 goals in his last 36 games and Retegui was only able to manage 7 goals in 29 games this season. Although a big problem, Italy has the quality in the squad to overcome this and create goals from a position. The lack of a lethal striker was the same problem highlighted before Euro 2020, yet Italy still managed to become the top scorer of that tournament with 13 goals and no player in the team scoring more than 2 goals. It will be an interesting dynamic that will need to be overcome if they are to progress out of this difficult group.

Spain:

Alike the German national team, the Spain squad is a mixture of the golden boys and Dad’s army. In attack, there are the likes of 21-year-old Nico Williams (Athletic Bilbao), Pedri (Barcelona) and personal favourite Fermin Lopez (Barcelona) alongside 16-year-old Lamine Yamal (Barcelona). The young talents are not just the future of Spain, but the future of football. Although they will likely not reach the heights of Messi or Ronaldo, they will certainly put on a good show and have an impact throughout their careers. These players all have the aim, to create chances for the striker. The striker department is where Spain loses their youthful look and puts faith in the old guard. 31-year-old Alvaro Morata (Atheltico Madrid) has been a player who has been questioned his entire career, but you can not doubt that when it comes down to it, he can score. With 35 goals in 73 international games, he boasts a strong goal-scoring record and is the rightful attacking threat for Spain. On the other side of the fence, we have one of the most peculiar resurgences of a striker in a long time which goes by the name Joselu. The 34-year-old Real Madrid striker was born in Germany and played for every Spanish youth team available but never received his first team call-up until he was 33. The striker had a poor career at both Stoke City and Newcastle United before moving to La Liga. After getting relegated with Espanyol in 2023, Real Madrid made a surprising loan move for him. With 18 goals in 49 games, including 2 massive winning goals in the dying minutes of the Champions League semi-finals, has gone down as a huge success. With this resurgence and following call-up, he has scored 5 goals in 11 for Spain and proven that age is just a number in sport. In the build-up to Euro 2024, Spain has been in fine goalscoring form. 34 goals in their last 10 games is a superb return for a team pinned as one of the favourites to win the tournament.

But Spain would be nowhere near the team they currently are without one man, and that man is Rodri (Manchester City). This midfield magnifico is the complete package for club and country, and will only keep on getting better. When Sergio Busquets retired from international football, there were questions over Spain's midfield, but those questions have been answered instantly. Following on from a superb season with the Premier League champions, he will have his eyes firmly set on the Euros. 2.1 tackles per game, 1.6 areal duels won per game, 6.9 ball recoveries per game, and a 92.5% pass completion rate all alongside 8 goals and 9 assists in 34 games is staggering for a defensive midfielder. He contributes in front of goal at key moments, much like his winner in the Champions League final last season. Of his 17 goals or assists this season, 10 have either put City a goal up or drawn them level proving that he is man for the big moments. And he is just the kind of player Spain will need to guide them into the latter rounds of these Euros.

Croatia:

Once a dark horse, now a European marvel. The World Cup semi-finalists are nothing to be discounted with a range of talent in every area of the squad. From the defensive machine of Gvardiol to the midfield magician of Luka Modric with an offensive outlet of Kramaric and Budimir. One issue though is that although they have a talented squad, it is certainly an ageing squad. With an average squad age of 27.7 years old, there are plenty of possibilities for tired legs and lethargies.

However, as previously mentioned, there are some players out there who are set on showing that age is just a number and Luka Modric is the epitome of that. The Balon D’or winner has been strutting his stuff for years and has been a key part of both the Real Madrid and Croatia squads that have etched themselves in history. Although playing a bit part season, he has still produced superb numbers and proven he still has what it takes.

2.8 key passes per game when starting, 84% passing accuracy in the opposition’s half and defensively 3 ball recoveries per game. He is a man who pops up all over the pitch for Croatia covering more ground than a majority of players could comprehend, as seen in the heatmap.

Age may be just a number in terms of skills, but it will certainly per a price on fitness levels. Croatia even with the strength of the squad they have got still play is a very difficult group. Their first game is against Spain, by far the hardest game in the group. The amount of work they will need to put into that game will be exhausting. They then play Albania in a must-win game for either side to have a hope of qualifying. Then finally, in what I expect to be a winner-takes-all match, they play Italy. In such a vital game, this Croatian side will field a side for their 3rd game in 9 days. Questions will be asked about their fitness levels and their ability to keep up with the pace of the game. In what I expect to be a good game, do not be shocked to see it all boil down to Croatia vs Italy for that second qualifying place.

Albania:

Although the title paints a different picture, I do not believe this Albania side is to be taken likely. Like every team, they deserve to be here after a strong qualifying but unfortunately got dished the hardest group. But do not expect that to stop them. They are a team full of little sparks who can make a big difference. Their attack will be the most vital for them because as Sir Bobby Robson once said “if you don’t score, you are not going to win.” The main flair they will be looking to make a difference in Jasir Asani of Gwangju FC in the K league. In Albania’s qualifying, he managed to muster up 3 goals and 2 assists in 8 games. If Albania hopes to qualify for this group, he must be in his A game alongside another striker called Rey Manaj.

The Sivasspor striker is a beast in attack with 18 goals in 32 games in the Turkish league. Winning 5.6 duels per game and 3.3 shots per game he is not afraid to simply give it a go. He is a striker who can score with both feet and will shoot from anywhere as seen on the shot map. With 39 of his 107 shots coming from outside of the box, he will become the main goal threat for Albania and he isn’t too bad at freekicks either scoring 3 this season. Unfortunately, with these exceptions, the red and black eagles have poor attacking quality. Armando Broja (Fulham) lacks match fitness and confidence in front of goal. Taulant Seferi (Bani Yas) and Arber Hoxha (Dinamo Zagreb) lack the quality to perform on the big stage and I feel will make minimal difference.

If you need a mess cleaning up, Albania has the man for the job and his name is Ylber Ramadani of Lecce FC. This defensive unit makes 2 tackles per game, and 6.6 ball recoveries per game whilst also winning 4.6 duels per game.

He is a workhorse who covers every inch of the midfield and certainly can compete against the very best. Whilst playing a vital role in Lecce’s survival in the Seria A this season, this player has had links with the likes of Inter Milan in the past and there is no reason why he doesn’t deserve a move like that. If Albania are to survive this group, he will need to be at the top of his game and be willing to showcase his talent.