Group D: Goals Galore

This is a group full of excitement and intrigue which some see as the group of death. 2018 World Cup winners and 2022 World Cup finalists France come into this tournament as favourites and rightfully so. A squad full of talent who could dominate for the next decade. Then there is the Netherlands who has always been a “nearly” team. They have always had talent but like England can never seem to make it click. Next up we have Austria, they are a team in fine form who can beat anyone on their day. Finishing up the group we have Poland. They are a squad who always seem to be there but never seem to do much. They have a few individual talents but may lack enough quality to escape this group. But you just never know in football.

France:

The epitome of talent in the France squad is none other than Kylian Mbappe. The new Real Madrid man has been a star at every team he has played for and can score goals for fun in any league and tournament. With 44 goals in 48 games this season, the 2022 World Cup top scorer can carry on his fine form for France. A player with immense speed, superb dribbling and world-class finishing is only 10 goals away from being the all-time France national team top scorer at just the age of 25. Although very unlikely, if anyone could score that many in our tournament, it is Mbappe who could achieve it. 9 goals in 8 games in qualification is already impressive but combine that with his 4.8 shots per game, 2.6 dribbles completed per game and 5 assists in 8 games is enough to show you how much of a superstar he is.

On the defensive aspect, France is still as good as any. They have kept 6 clean sheets in 8 qualifying games and are easily the favourites to make it to the knockout rounds from this group. Their back line is made up of the likes of Jules Kounde (Barcelona), Dayot Upamecano (Bayern Munich) and Ibrahima Konate (Liverpool) who are all defensive rocks on their day. Both Konate and Upamecano are notorious for injuries so the likelihood is there

will be defensive rotation but that is where William Saliba (Arsenal) comes into play. This season he has been one of the best centre-backs in the Premier League and arguably should be starting for France. In the league this season he has kept 18 clean sheets and has been competing against the very best as can be seen on the graphic. He has kept more ball recoveries per game than both Van Dijk and Dias. In comparison, he has completed the least number of clearances per game out of these 3 demonstrating his confidence in playing out from the back. In what will be a very competitive group, expect the defence to be called up a lot.

Netherlands:

In their 2 warm-up games for the Euros, the Dutch team won both games 4-0 which included 6 different goal scorers. That makes it 9 wins in their last 14 games which will give them confidence, but it looks far better on the surface than in reality. Of their 5 losses in that time, 2 were against France, and the others against Germany, Italy and Croatia, all teams which they will need to beat if they want to go far in this tournament. All these games were very close and the Netherlands were just on the wrong side of the result. In the 5 games, they averaged 52% possession and averaged 12 shots per game in comparison to their opponent's 13 per game. If the likes of Cody Gakpo (Liverpool), Memphis Depay (Athletico Madrid) and Wout Weghorst (Hoffenheim) can be clinical, they could easily turn these types of results around.

One player they need to get involved in the game is Xavi Simons of RB Leipzig. The youngster can create chances for fun and prove that the hype around him is justified. He has

11 assists in the Bundesliga this season and was vital in achieving Champions League football for next season. He is a player who can, and will, play anywhere along the front line for the Netherlands and will be important for the Dutch throughout the Euros. He has

completed 2.5 key chances per game this season in the league and completed 2.6 dribbles per game. As seen on the heatmap, Ronald Koeman clearly trusts Simons game intelligence and allows him the free reign to be a creative spark for the Dutch. He has started 11 of 14 games for the Netherlands since Koeman retook charge and is one of the favoured personnel of the Holland icon. 

Austria:

This Austrian team are aggressive in the press and knows how to win games. They are a team full of talent and experience and are being slightly overlooked going into this group. Since a disappointing Nations League in 2022, Ralf Rangnick’s Austria have been top draw. With 12 wins and 3 draws in their last 16 games, they have been much to be hopeful for and their fans will be expecting big things for the Euros. One man who has created this hope is Christoph Baumgartner. He is certainly not a player who will be on everyone’s radar but this attacking player has scored in his last 5 consecutive games for Austria. In addition to this, he wins 6.7 duels per game showing just how much he will fight for his country and be a real nuisance for the opposition. The 24-year-old has 15 goals in 38 games for his nation and will be the attacking talisman for the Austrians.

Where Austria can dominate the game is in the midfield. The combination of Nicolas Seiwald (RB Leipzig) and Konrad Laimer (Bayern Munich) become a physical duo who are not afraid to put a foot in. During qualifying they combined for 4 tackles per game, and an amazing 11 ball recoveries per game, portraying that there is strength in teamwork. Together they cover every inch of the pitch which removes the pressure of tracking back for the attacking players. 

As seen on the heatmaps, Seiwald is naturally the one who will sit deeper and cover more ground, however, this gives the likes of Laimer and Baumgartner the free reign to push further forward and use their energy to put pressure on the opposition in their half of the pitch. Defensively, Seiwald's game is a lot like that of Tchouameni of Real Madrid. Both are not scared to hold position and they are both able to read the game very well. Unlike Tchouameni however, Seiwald lacks attacking intelligence and often looks lost in offensive positions. He is a player who in 21 appearances for RB Leipzig this season, has not mustered a single effort at goal and can only complete 0.2 key passes per game. For Austria to progress from this difficult group, these players will need to be utilised correctly and effectively, but if anyone can do it, the tactical mastermind Ralf Rangnick can.  

Poland:

After scraping past Wales on penalties, the Polish are coming to Euro 2024 and will be looking to cause a few shocks. Making their fifth consecutive appearance at the European Championships, they have unfortunately very little chance of advancing past the group stage but never say never. Especially never say never when you have one of the best strikers of the past decade leading the line. Robert Lewandowski (Barcelona) has broken records, been robbed of Balon D’Or’s and won titles galore. This goal-scoring machine is a Polish legend with both an appearance record and a goal-scoring record which won’t be

broken any time soon and has been named Polish player of the year a record 11 times. 82 goals in 150 games is an amazing record for a nation currently ranked 28th in the world. With age comes maturity and that is exactly what has happened for Lewandowski. Aware that his cardio is not the same as it once was, he has taken on more of a “fox in the box role”. In his most recent season with Barcelona, he has taken 82% of his shots from inside the box with a conversion rate of 22%. If Poland can learn his game and use his ability, they can be a real danger to all the bigger teams in their group and potentially cause an upset.

Leading into the tournament, Poland has been dealt a poor hand. Injuries come to every team but the timing is truly impeccable. Lewandowski has officially been ruled out of Poland’s first clash against the Netherlands. Alongside him, second-choice striker Karol Swiderski (Verona) took a knock in the final warm-up game and is a doubt for the first game as is centre-back Pawel Dawidowicz (Verona) who will be assessed before the game. Although all can be replaced, bar Lewandowski, I feel Poland simply doesn’t have the quality in their ranks to threaten the likes of France or the Netherlands.