The Art of Nicolas Jackson

One of my current favourite strikers is Chelsea’s frontman, Nicolas Jackson. The Senegalese forward has not always had an easy time with Chelsea and has on more than one occasion been a laughing stock for missing a sitter. It goes without saying that big chances missed is certainly in double figures, but it is his movement and physical attributes that get him into the right positions. The main asset of a top striker is their footballing brain and ability to get into positions for their teammates. Nicolas Jackson has this asset nailed down as he is often available for the pass or even able to catch defenders off guard with an easy ball over the top. He possesses speed, strength and movement which is difficult to be topped by any other striker in the league. Where he lacks is his finishing with multiple attempts missed per game which if they were to be taken would put him up there with Haaland for goals. He may be a laughing stock, but no one can doubt that they hate playing against him.

Before his move to the Premier League, Jackson was on the Spanish side of Villarreal. He was with the La Liga team for 4 years which included a 3-year stint with their youth side (Villarreal B). He enjoyed a breakout year during the 22/23 season in which he mustered 26 appearances which included 16 starts. In what was a shock to the system, he scored 12

goals and made 4 assists helping Villarreal to a 5th place finish and a go in Europe. In January 2023, Villarreal agreed to a £22.5 million deal with AFC Bournemouth for Jackson's transfer, but the move fell through after he failed his medical due to hamstring issues. Consequently, he continued to train with the Spanish side and get back to fitness. After returning to action in March, he went on to score nine goals during April and May which placed him on the radar of some bigger clubs. Speaking of which in June 2023, Chelsea agreed on a deal for the signature of Jackson for around £32 million on a deal that would run to 2031. As of September 2024, Jackson has since agreed to a 2-year extension which will allow his contract to run till 2033. Nicolas Jackson is currently the second most valuable Senegalese player in the world (behind Pape Matar Sarr of Spurs) whilst still only 23 years old. He has a long career ahead of him which will allow him to grow and develop into one of the best strikers in Europe.

Jackson is well known for missing big chances however from looking at the numbers, I feel

this last season was simply an anomaly. Looking at the comparison between his goals and xG we can see that in his breakout season with Villarreal, he was outperforming his expected goals by 3.44. He took his chances and was clinical throughout. However, in his first season with The Blues, his clinical edge seemed to be lost as he underperformed by a whopping 5.86. Based on the chances generated for him and his shooting positions, he should have had around 20 goals in the season.

One reason for the massive underperformance can be put down to the general number of big chances he missed and his shot conversion rate. In just one season, the striker managed to miss 24 big chances averaging a big chance missed every 117 minutes of game time. However, big chances missed are not a deal breaker for a striker as even Haaland in his record season 22/23 season for Man City missed 28 big chances. The main judgement is on his shot conversion rate when Jackson only mustered 18% in comparison to Haaland’s 29%. Nicolas Jackson took far too many meaningless shots in addition to messing up some simple shots from inside the box. However, comparing his numbers to Haaland is unfair and it would be far more beneficial to compare him to the likes of Solanke or even Havertz. During the 23/24 season, Solanke had an 18% conversion rate and Havertz had a 19% conversion rate. These 2 are hailed at far higher levels than Jackson but looking at the conversion rates, we can see they have similar problems to Nicolas. In his adaptive season for Chelsea, he still managed similar numbers to £65 million Havertz and £55 million Solanke. The 24/25 season will be the year for Jackson to cut out his mistakes and really get himself in the headlines.

I mentioned earlier how he has taken too many loose wasteful shots rather than sticking to what he does best, and this can be seen on his shot map. The red and purple circles are shots which were either off target or blocked and looking at the trend of shots from 15 years

plus, we can see that the majority are off target or blocked. Very few were on target (blue circles) and not even a single one was scored (green circles). What Jackson does best is putting himself about in the penalty area and getting either on the end of crosses or bullying defenders to get closer to the goal. All 14 of his goals were scored within 15 yards and even his season, his 2 goals were scored in the 6-yard box. His positioning once again is key for this play style as he knows when to make a late run into the box or whether to simply get in the mixer. With only 2 fewer non-penalty goals than Mo Salah since the start of the 23/24 season, Nicolas Jackson is the poacher that Chelsea needs.

Nicolas Jackson is not only a goal scorer, but he is a physical brute. Whether he is winning a foot race against a defender, holding up the ball or creating a presence in the box, Jackson is often utilising his physical abilities to good use as well. With the quality around him now, his ability to hold up the ball and get the creative players involved will be even more important. The likes of Palmer, Madueke and Neto will be glad to see Nicolas leading the line giving them more room on the ball as well as further license to roam from their positions. When you have a striker like Jackson up front, the wingers can enjoy more time on the ball without defenders pestering them in addition to more freedom in attack. Jackson's linkup play and intelligence to create space for his teammates makes him one of the most underrated strikers in the league. This season will see him hit new heights and he gets Chelsea back in the battle for Europe.