World Cup 2026: The Dark Horses That Could Knock Out Football's Giants

Throughout every World Cup, there is always a surprise nation which goes far in the tournament, making an unprecedented appearance in the latter rounds. This year, it is expected to be a very open competition, with many emerging nations starting to assemble strong squads. This demonstrates the rise in ability of these countries at the youth level as more nations look to rival the big boys of international football. However, it can make the choice for a dark horse very difficult, with their being numerous nations looking to make their mark. However, I do believe there are 3 standout nations which will not only go far but knock out some of the big boys on their way.

Colombia

For me, Colombia is the epitome of a dark horse. They are an aging squad who have struggled for success in past tournaments, with only 1 quarter-final appearance in their 6 attempts. In their continental competition of Copa America, they have found it difficult to get their foot over the finish line, finishing in 3rd twice and most recently being runners-up in 2024. They come into this tournament with a good run of form after a successful qualification stage and with their main man, Luis Diaz, coming off an exceptional season.  The pieces look to be in the right place at the right time as they take on a “simple” group stage.

As we can see from the above overview, Colombia have more than enough ability to dominate fixtures and create a heap of chances offensively. With 21.75 touches in the opponent’s box per match and 2.72 big chances created per game, they are a strong attacking team who can put the sword to anyone during the World Cup. They were the 2nd top scorers throughout the qualification stage (2nd to only Argentina) with an average of 1.5 goals per game. One area they can be seen as lacking in, however, is their defensive solidity. Conceding 18 goals in 18 games doesn’t seem that poor until you look at other teams in the same positions. Ecuador with only 5/18, Argentina 10/18 and Paraguay 10/18. Colombia is in a mode of outscoring the opponents whilst going full throttle, attacking-wise. This will work against the weaker opponents; however, when they come up against teams which are defensively stronger, there is a chance for them to be found out.

In preparation for this World Cup, they have been implementing a 4-2-3-1 tactical set up, where the #10 has free roam to be that creative centrepiece. The man trusted for this role is, of course, James Rodriguez, who may be getting on with his age but is still the creative star

he was on the international stage. Whilst aspects of his career at club level took a bit of a tumble, his output for his national side has remained just as strong as it once was. With 10 goal contributions throughout the qualification stage, he and Diaz were the main players going forward. Although Diaz was the goalscorer of the pair, Rodriguez was the creative spark. Whilst 7 assists are obviously impressive, the 13 big chances created, and 44 key passes are the cherry on top. A serial creator is a dangerous asset from the off, but when you possess the quality that James does, it can be the difference between falling at the group stage and progressing deep into the tournament.

Looking at Colombia’s group, it is expected that they will progress in at least second place, with wins over DR Congo and Uzbekistan being somewhat mandatory. The difficult fixture, however, is of course Portugal. In what will be the difference between a potential round of 16 fixture with Ghana or a round of 32 matchup with reigning champions Argentina, there is a lot on the line with the expected head-to-head with Portugal. Whilst I can personally foresee draw in that game, should Colombia have that clinical edge there is no doubt that on their day, they can beat them. Whilst there have been rumblings about a slight disappointment from South American football this year, do not count out Colombia.

Japan

Next up, we have 4-time AFC Asian Cup champions ‘Samurai Blue’, i.e. the Japan national team. Potentially one of the biggest emerging countries in football for a long time, Japan are starting to catch the eye of a lot of people within football as the team to watch out for. Whilst being given a testing group stage, I feel they should be seen as the favourites after such a promising qualification alongside the variety of talent they are bringing with them. Having a brief look over their group, it could well be the time for Japan to knockout some heavy teams. Sweden did not officially qualify for the World Cup; however, due to the Nations League rulings, they were able to qualify through alternative means. Furthermore, with Isak only recently returning from injury and Graham Potter still struggling to get a tune out of the Swedish side, they should be seen as a team which can be taken advantage of. Additionally, we have the top seed in the Netherlands, who have been on the brink of a disappointing tournament for quite a while. Whilst they always seem to pull it back when needed, this could very well be the year we see an early dismissal from them. In the friendlies during the build-up to the World Cup, they have lost to Algeria and required a 90+8 penalty to prevent a draw with Uzbekistan. Not the run of form they will have been looking for to instil confidence into their players and fans. Japan has the opportunity to capitalise on a very out-of-form group and progress well in the knockout rounds.

Whilst Japan does not possess a talismanic figure, what they do have is a very talented group of players, all of whom contribute to every aspect of the game. The main man up top is Ayase Ueda, who plays his club football at Feyenoord. The 27-year-old has undergone an amazing season, scoring 24 goals in 31 league appearances, experiencing his best season at just the right moment to take him into the World Cup on a high. Within the same squad, we have European Conference League winner Daichi Kamada pulling the strings in midfield, next to either former Premier League champion Wataru Endo or FA Cup semi-finalist Ao Tanaka. They have talent across their ranks as they have developed a technically gifted super team. One player who will be missed, however, is Kauro Mitoma, who is suffering from injury and was deemed not fit enough to play a part. Whilst he is a missing cog in the Japan attack, they have more than enough ability across the board to make up for this loss.

Looking at their qualification, it is hard to oppose them. 30 goals in 10 games alongside only the 3 conceded, even if it is against a generally low-quality opponent. An average of 68% possession shows composure and a willingness to play the way they see fit (even if possession has no guarantee of success). Additionally, 3.5 big chances per game in comparison to the oppositions 0.3 is something truly outrageous. The fact that a team can compile that much pressure on the opponent is outstanding, and should they continue to play like that, it will undoubtedly make some of the bigger teams crumble.

Examples of which can already be seen with some huge wins over both England and Brazil. What is even more impressive during these games is their adaptability. Against Brazil, they played at their usual strong foot forward pace, creating more opportunities than their opponent and restricting shots available. However, against England, they played the opposite, having only 30% of the ball and creating only a single big chance. They allowed England 19 shots and 11 corners in comparison to their own 7 shots and a single corner. Yet they still trusted their defence and goalkeeper enough to see them through it as they consistently sprung counter attacks, hitting fast breaks to create shooting opportunities. They are a team that can adapt to their opposition, which will be the driving factor behind the potential success of this World Cup.

Türkiye

 My final dark horse is probably one of the most exciting to watch in the entire tournament. I mean, of course, Türkiye, the classic dark horses who have let everyone’s predictions down before. Whilst they have started to make regular appearances in tournaments over the last few years, it is certainly not thanks to them playing ‘safe football’. With an average of 2.375 goals scored and 1.5 goals conceded per game, they are a slightly chaotic side who are at their very best when going full throttle to score. In their last 10 games, they have only seen fewer than 3 goals in a game 3 times, 2 of which were 1-0 victories in the qualification playoff games. Whilst it can be seen as a weak defensive display from them, it should be categorised as more of an attacking minded approach that can leave them vulnerable to potential counter attacks.

It has got to be said, though, when looking at their attack, you can see why they play with such dynamism when going forward. With the likes of Yildiz and Güler, they possess some of the most promising and creative wonderkids in World football. Just behind them, we have Türkiye’s main man in the form of Hakan Çalhanoğlu. Widely regarded as one of the best in Serie A, the midfielder has been a staple of the Turkish national team and is a large reason

for their recent successes. He is a midfielder who can do it all, and not just that, but is willing to do it all. Throughout the entire qualification process, he made 6 appearances, contributing with 4 assists and a goal. Looking deeper, we can see he averaged 1.7 key passes per game. 3.5 tackles/interceptions per game whilst creating 3 big chances. He was involved at both ends of the pitch, and with a dime of a set piece as well, he is an all-action midfielder for Türkiye. Often being the decider between success and failure, Türkiye will need to get this man into the game as they eye up a favourable run to the latter stages of the tournament.

Looking at their group, there is no reason why they shouldn’t qualify if performing to their usual standard. First game they play a poor Australia side before going on to a slightly unknown Paraguay side, who have recently lost main man Enciso. The final game could be difficult against the home nation, the U.S.A. Whilst the U.S.A “Soccer” team does have a lot of players situated in and around the top European leagues, as a unit, they are still a very average side. Although, whilst being on home soil, they will likely cause a few issues to most teams, but Türkiye should have the firepower to bypass them and top the group. Assuming they top the ground, their next game could be against another home nation in Canada or Bosnia. Both teams, which have their positives but are alike Türkiye’s previous opponents, shouldn’t cause too many issues. After these games, Türkiye will have surpassed pre-tournament expectations, but with the creativity on their side, there is every chance that they could go further.  Of course, though, this is tournament football, and anything is possible.